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http://www.theccchronicle.com/category/helpful-advice/
Peggy Doviak
Thursday, July 15, 2010
"Staying Cool"
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Funny Video
Check out this YouTube video on how the stock market won't go to zero! Created by a CFP(r) practitioner, it's got some great advice.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3GtxtWSZxE
Be prosperous!
Peggy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3GtxtWSZxE
Be prosperous!
Peggy
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Greece is the Word
First, I want to apologize for my complete failure at providing 365 posts this year! The good news is I finished the second half of my capstone, and barring any need for revisions, am also finished with my Masters in Financial Analysis degree! Hooray!!!
Second, I want to take a couple of columns and discuss what's been going on in the markets of late. I think we have had a lot of simultaneous events that have spooked people (but the end of the story is I think things will be all right). Now, I don't usually prognosticate market movements in writing, so PLEASE be aware that this is just my opinion, and I'm probably wrong. This isn't investment advice, so you can't get mad if this doesn't work. : )
First, the sovereign debt crisis in southern and southeast Europe (specifically Greece, Spain, Portugal, etc.) has caused great panic that entire systems are about to fail again. It's sort of like worrying that one of our states might go bankrupt, and then what would happen? Basically, Greece announced that owed too much money and didn't know how to pay it back. Over the next six weeks, other European countries (mostly Germany) loaned money, and Greece went on an austerity program that led to rioting in the streets but more stability in the financial markets.
Nevertheless, as this story broke in early May, the markets began to roil and even today, some commentators are quick to say we are about to return to 2008's decline. I would like to give you one sign that suggests to me that we are not. LIBOR is the rate at which banks loan money to each other, typically overnight. Usually, it is an incredibly low rate of interest because banks trust each other. However, in 2008 LIBOR rates went through the roof. Banks didn't trust each other enough to want to lend each other money, even for a day. I believe that if the debt crisis in Europe was really the beginning of a massive credit crisis, we would see LIBOR rates spiking again. Instead, LIBOR declined during the month of June.
Certainly, we're not out of the woods yet, but I don't think it's time to panic either.
Be Prosperous!
Peggy
Second, I want to take a couple of columns and discuss what's been going on in the markets of late. I think we have had a lot of simultaneous events that have spooked people (but the end of the story is I think things will be all right). Now, I don't usually prognosticate market movements in writing, so PLEASE be aware that this is just my opinion, and I'm probably wrong. This isn't investment advice, so you can't get mad if this doesn't work. : )
First, the sovereign debt crisis in southern and southeast Europe (specifically Greece, Spain, Portugal, etc.) has caused great panic that entire systems are about to fail again. It's sort of like worrying that one of our states might go bankrupt, and then what would happen? Basically, Greece announced that owed too much money and didn't know how to pay it back. Over the next six weeks, other European countries (mostly Germany) loaned money, and Greece went on an austerity program that led to rioting in the streets but more stability in the financial markets.
Nevertheless, as this story broke in early May, the markets began to roil and even today, some commentators are quick to say we are about to return to 2008's decline. I would like to give you one sign that suggests to me that we are not. LIBOR is the rate at which banks loan money to each other, typically overnight. Usually, it is an incredibly low rate of interest because banks trust each other. However, in 2008 LIBOR rates went through the roof. Banks didn't trust each other enough to want to lend each other money, even for a day. I believe that if the debt crisis in Europe was really the beginning of a massive credit crisis, we would see LIBOR rates spiking again. Instead, LIBOR declined during the month of June.
Certainly, we're not out of the woods yet, but I don't think it's time to panic either.
Be Prosperous!
Peggy
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Back from Indianapolis
I'm back from a quick weekend trip to Indianapolis, where I taught a one-day Investment Planning review for CFP candidates. Indianapolis is a great town, but I learned that when visiting in the future, I should rent a car. The taxi service reminds me of Oklahoma City! Nevertheless, I found the students bright, articulate, and fun--even on a Saturday. They will be an asset to the financial planning profession.
Be Prosperous!
Peggy
Be Prosperous!
Peggy
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Whassup with the Market?
I usually don't talk at great length about current stock market conditions, as I am not in the business of writing a "stock picking" blog. However, the current conditions suggest a few observations might be in order:
1. Why is this happening? I believe that the US market decline is absolutely a result of the European debt crisis with Greece and other nations.
2. What do currencies have to do with it? Currency movements have a funny effect on the stock market. Usually, a weak currency suggests better trading opportunities for the country, and the stock market improves. Of course, when the currency decline is due to a shock to the system, like what is happening to the Euro over Greece, the rapid decline leads to a drop in the stock market. Unfortunately, as the Euro declines right now, for any reason, the US Dollar is getting stronger. This causes less favorable trading conditions for the US, and causes the stock market to suffer somewhat. Add to that the additional shock of the European debt crisis on the heels of our 2008 debt debacle, and the US stock market is not happy right now.
Why is oil dropping? It ties back to currencies again. Due to the European crisis, the American dollar is strengthening against all the world currencies, including (wait for it) the Australian Dollar. The poor Aussies down under are caught up in a mess that really isn't their fault! There is a high correlation between the price of oil and the price of the Australian dollar, so as the Aussie dollar falls, so does the price of oil. This will likely continue until the Aussie dollar can strengthen, or the US dollar weakens a little. Talk about complicated!!!!!
What do we do now? I will not tell you what to do. I will tell you that this market has my full and undivided attention. I'm really trying to weigh all of the positive news out of US earnings and improving economic data against this European crisis. It's a close balance, and I haven't fully decided yet......
Be prosperous (in spite of this)!
Peggy
1. Why is this happening? I believe that the US market decline is absolutely a result of the European debt crisis with Greece and other nations.
2. What do currencies have to do with it? Currency movements have a funny effect on the stock market. Usually, a weak currency suggests better trading opportunities for the country, and the stock market improves. Of course, when the currency decline is due to a shock to the system, like what is happening to the Euro over Greece, the rapid decline leads to a drop in the stock market. Unfortunately, as the Euro declines right now, for any reason, the US Dollar is getting stronger. This causes less favorable trading conditions for the US, and causes the stock market to suffer somewhat. Add to that the additional shock of the European debt crisis on the heels of our 2008 debt debacle, and the US stock market is not happy right now.
Why is oil dropping? It ties back to currencies again. Due to the European crisis, the American dollar is strengthening against all the world currencies, including (wait for it) the Australian Dollar. The poor Aussies down under are caught up in a mess that really isn't their fault! There is a high correlation between the price of oil and the price of the Australian dollar, so as the Aussie dollar falls, so does the price of oil. This will likely continue until the Aussie dollar can strengthen, or the US dollar weakens a little. Talk about complicated!!!!!
What do we do now? I will not tell you what to do. I will tell you that this market has my full and undivided attention. I'm really trying to weigh all of the positive news out of US earnings and improving economic data against this European crisis. It's a close balance, and I haven't fully decided yet......
Be prosperous (in spite of this)!
Peggy
Monday, May 17, 2010
Home Repair Concerns
I live in Oklahoma, and houses near mine were badly damaged in last Monday's tornado outbreak. We were lucky--we lost a few shingles, a fence, and a mammoth tree ripped out by its roots. As we were standing outside not half an hour after the tornado, a guy in a pickup truck pulls up saying he could see the tree damage, and would we like to have him remove it. I said no, but my husband said, "What would it cost?" He tells us that for $1200, he will cut it up and drag it to the curb for the city to remove. We tell him we will think about it. He reminded us that he was a neighbor, just living a few streets over. I really wish I had thought to ask the address, as I don't actually believe it. By midweek, we had arranged to have the tree cut up and taken away for $500.
The first offer of "help" was by no means the last, and we were harassed for 48 hours by people we didn't know representing companies we had never heard of. Replace the roof, fix the roof, replace the fence, fix the fence, and my personal favorite--the young kid who showed up in 98 degree weather in black slacks, long-sleeved black shirt, and a black suede vest with a fleur de lis on the back. He offered to act as my "personal representative," and negotiate with the insurance company, the contractors, and even attorneys if necessary. He had asked my husband to sign a blank contract earlier in the day, and my husband said he deferred to me. This old boy was waiting for me on my driveway when I pulled up after work and started talking fast. I told him I understood my insurance policy and didn't need his help. When he pushed, I told him I was a financial planner, and REALLY didn't need his help. I guess I looked like I meant it because he got in his truck and drove away.
Your takeaway from this: Even when there has been a disaster, try to work with people you know. If you don't have a roofer chosen already, then talk to your friends, and use someone that already has a personal tie to someone you know. I'm not saying these guys weren't all honest, but it felt like I had landed at the midway in the carnival. When all I wanted to do was get my life back together, I had to fend them off. I noticed they were especially pushy with older people living on the street. Say no. If they don't leave, say no again, or walk inside. You're not being rude; you're protecting yourself.
Be prosperous!
Peggy
The first offer of "help" was by no means the last, and we were harassed for 48 hours by people we didn't know representing companies we had never heard of. Replace the roof, fix the roof, replace the fence, fix the fence, and my personal favorite--the young kid who showed up in 98 degree weather in black slacks, long-sleeved black shirt, and a black suede vest with a fleur de lis on the back. He offered to act as my "personal representative," and negotiate with the insurance company, the contractors, and even attorneys if necessary. He had asked my husband to sign a blank contract earlier in the day, and my husband said he deferred to me. This old boy was waiting for me on my driveway when I pulled up after work and started talking fast. I told him I understood my insurance policy and didn't need his help. When he pushed, I told him I was a financial planner, and REALLY didn't need his help. I guess I looked like I meant it because he got in his truck and drove away.
Your takeaway from this: Even when there has been a disaster, try to work with people you know. If you don't have a roofer chosen already, then talk to your friends, and use someone that already has a personal tie to someone you know. I'm not saying these guys weren't all honest, but it felt like I had landed at the midway in the carnival. When all I wanted to do was get my life back together, I had to fend them off. I noticed they were especially pushy with older people living on the street. Say no. If they don't leave, say no again, or walk inside. You're not being rude; you're protecting yourself.
Be prosperous!
Peggy
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